Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Malik WillisPassing13/19, 202 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik WillisRushing6 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving2 REC, 67 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing26/34, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Tony PollardRushing6 CAR, 14 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:29Brayden Narveson 47 Yd Field Goal30–14
- Q34:55DeAndre Hopkins 11 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)27–14
- Q38:25Emanuel Wilson 30 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Narveson Kick)27–7
- Q20:00Brayden Narveson 26 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q10:51Jaire Alexander 35 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–7
- Q11:05Brayden Narveson 21 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q17:15Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q112:25Malik Willis 5 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:25Malik Willis 5 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 7 – 0 TEN · GB 43% → 61% +18GB 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q17:15Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)GB 7 – 7 TEN · TEN 38% → 57% +19TEN 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q11:05Brayden Narveson 21 Yd Field GoalGB 10 – 7 TEN · GB 44% → 52% +9GB 44% → 52%+9 pts
- Q10:51Jaire Alexander 35 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 17 – 7 TEN · GB 52% → 71% +19GB 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q38:25Emanuel Wilson 30 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Narveson Kick)GB 27 – 7 TEN · GB 88% → 97% +9GB 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -2.5
- ML GB +130 / TEN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TEN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TEN: Elo 50.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEN -135
- GB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 17.0 – 19.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −125 | +12 | GB: Malik Willis, usually Jordan Love · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN 0 Elo | TEN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 53.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3222.5 | Points scored | 17.927th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 21.616th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.9 | Margin | −3.626th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 4.9026th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2014th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.