Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/34, 237 YDS, 1 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing25 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- Simi FehokoReceiving2 REC, 44 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing19/33, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Bo NixRushing6 CAR, 61 YDS
- Devaughn VeleReceiving4 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:59Wil Lutz 40 Yd Field Goal23–16
- Q45:22Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–13
- Q410:06Troy Franklin 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)23–7
- Q32:35Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal23–0
- Q21:00J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–0
- Q26:21Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q14:59Kimani Vidal 38 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–0
- Q19:26Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:26Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field GoalLAC 3 – 0 DEN · LAC 56% → 64% +8LAC 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q14:59Kimani Vidal 38 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 0 DEN · LAC 64% → 80% +16LAC 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q26:21Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field GoalLAC 13 – 0 DEN · LAC 83% → 88% +6LAC 83% → 88%+6 pts
- Q21:00J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 20 – 0 DEN · LAC 90% → 97% +7LAC 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q45:22Courtland Sutton 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LAC 23 – 13 DEN · DEN <1% → 2% +2DEN <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -150 / DEN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- LAC 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 37.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -130
- DEN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 20.0 – 17.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −48 | LAC: Justin Herbert · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +86 Elo | DEN 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 56.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 19.220th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.5 | Points allowed | 14.62nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+4.5 | Margin | +4.611th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.86 | Yards per play | 4.4729th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.96 | Yards allowed per play | 4.393rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.