Denver Broncos at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing12/25, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 77 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving3 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing24/42, 225 YDS
- Braelon AllenRushing8 CAR, 34 YDS
- Mike WilliamsReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:55Wil Lutz 47 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q413:34Greg Zuerlein 40 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q33:08Courtland Sutton 8 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–6
- Q20:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q214:51Greg Zuerlein 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:51Greg Zuerlein 23 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 3 NYJ · NYJ 71% → 78% +7NYJ 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q20:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 77% → 84% +7NYJ 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q33:08Courtland Sutton 8 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 6 NYJ · DEN 15% → 40% +26DEN 15% → 40%+26 pts
- Q413:34Greg Zuerlein 40 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 9 NYJ · NYJ 57% → 72% +15NYJ 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q48:55Wil Lutz 47 Yd Field GoalDEN 10 – 9 NYJ · DEN 28% → 46% +18DEN 28% → 46%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -8.5
- ML DEN +290 / NYJ -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -3
- NYJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.1 pts
- NYJ: Elo 61.2%, market 75.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -290
- DEN +290 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 15.5 – 24.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −60 | +5 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +79 Elo | NYJ 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 74.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3217.3 | Points scored | 22.314th of 32 |
| 6th of 3215.3 | Points allowed | 17.38th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +5.09th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.65 | Yards per play | 5.3217th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.47 | Yards allowed per play | 4.729th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.