Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing12/17, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Ameer AbdullahRushing5 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- Brock BowersReceiving8 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing19/27, 206 YDS, 2 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 61 YDS
- Javonte WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:01Ameer Abdullah 3 Yd Run (Alexander Mattison Run for Two-Point Conversion)18–34
- Q48:14Josh Reynolds 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–34
- Q410:12Bo Nix 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)10–27
- Q36:54Jaleel McLaughlin 4 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–20
- Q20:00Wil Lutz 44 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q28:43Pat Surtain II 100 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)10–10
- Q212:23Wil Lutz 51 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q11:27Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:57Brock Bowers 57 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:57Brock Bowers 57 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 DEN · LV 42% → 60% +18LV 42% → 60%+18 pts
- Q212:23Wil Lutz 51 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 3 DEN · DEN 28% → 36% +8DEN 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q28:43Pat Surtain II 100 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)LV 10 – 10 DEN · DEN 35% → 56% +21DEN 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q20:00Wil Lutz 44 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 13 DEN · DEN 56% → 66% +10DEN 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q36:54Jaleel McLaughlin 4 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)LV 10 – 20 DEN · DEN 67% → 88% +21DEN 67% → 88%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML LV +130 / DEN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 55.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -137
- LV +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 16.5 – 19.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +43 | −58 | LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +37 Elo | DEN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 57.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3219.5 | Points scored | 15.529th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 13.83rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−4.8 | Margin | +1.815th of 32 |
| 21st of 324.96 | Yards per play | 4.3430th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 4.201st of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LV 2–0 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.