Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing24/32, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jerome FordRushing10 CAR, 58 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving6 REC, 72 YDS
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing14/24, 130 YDS
- Alexander MattisonRushing5 CAR, 60 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving5 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:50Rodney McLeod Jr. 25 Yd Fumble Return (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)16–20
- Q35:23DJ Turner 18 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–20
- Q311:28Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q22:52Daniel Carlson 52 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q29:50Tre Tucker 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)10–7
- Q10:35Dustin Hopkins 56 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q15:38Blake Whiteheart 1 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:38Blake Whiteheart 1 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 0 LV · CLE 57% → 74% +17CLE 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q29:50Tre Tucker 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)CLE 10 – 7 LV · LV 18% → 35% +17LV 18% → 35%+17 pts
- Q311:28Daniel Carlson 34 Yd Field GoalCLE 10 – 13 LV · LV 45% → 56% +11LV 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q35:23DJ Turner 18 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)CLE 10 – 20 LV · LV 58% → 83% +25LV 58% → 83%+25 pts
- Q414:50Rodney McLeod Jr. 25 Yd Fumble Return (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)CLE 16 – 20 LV · CLE 12% → 34% +22CLE 12% → 34%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -155 / LV +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -2
- CLE 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 43.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -136
- LV +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 20.5 – 18.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +47 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +46 Elo | LV 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3216.7 | Points scored | 19.318th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 27.029th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−5.7 | Margin | −7.726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.76 | Yards per play | 4.9821st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.04 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0730th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.