New York Giants at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing24/34, 236 YDS, 2 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing16 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik NabersReceiving8 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing21/37, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- Jerome FordRushing10 CAR, 37 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving7 REC, 86 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:33Amari Cooper 6 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Deshaun Watson Pass to Jerry Jeudy for Two-Point Conversion)21–15
- Q20:11Malik Nabers 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)21–7
- Q21:44Malik Nabers 3 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)14–7
- Q12:07Devin Singletary 1 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)7–7
- Q114:49Amari Cooper 24 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:49Amari Cooper 24 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)NYG 0 – 7 CLE · CLE 70% → 83% +13CLE 70% → 83%+13 pts
- Q12:07Devin Singletary 1 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)NYG 7 – 7 CLE · NYG 17% → 32% +15NYG 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q21:44Malik Nabers 3 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)NYG 14 – 7 CLE · NYG 35% → 59% +24NYG 35% → 59%+24 pts
- Q20:11Malik Nabers 5 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Greg Joseph Kick)NYG 21 – 7 CLE · NYG 60% → 81% +21NYG 60% → 81%+21 pts
- Q411:33Amari Cooper 6 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Deshaun Watson Pass to Jerry Jeudy for Two-Point Conversion)NYG 21 – 15 CLE · CLE 4% → 26% +23CLE 4% → 26%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML NYG +220 / CLE -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 71.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -234
- NYG +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 15.5 – 22.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | +1 | NYG: Daniel Jones · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +155 Elo | CLE 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 69.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 70.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.6 | Points scored | 23.310th of 32 |
| 26th of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 21.313th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.3 | Margin | +2.09th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.50 | Yards per play | 4.8128th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 4.572nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.