Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing22/34, 186 YDS
- Jerome FordRushing7 CAR, 64 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing14/30, 220 YDS
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing13 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving2 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:44Trevor Lawrence sacked in end zone by Alex Wright for a Safety18–13
- Q47:32Cam Little 25 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q31:11Travis Etienne Jr. 4 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)16–10
- Q310:20Dustin Hopkins 44 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q20:27Dustin Hopkins 38 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q24:44Cam Little 22 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q29:52Dustin Hopkins 53 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q12:29Deshaun Watson 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:29Deshaun Watson 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 0 JAX · CLE 40% → 60% +20CLE 40% → 60%+20 pts
- Q20:27Dustin Hopkins 38 Yd Field GoalCLE 13 – 3 JAX · CLE 66% → 75% +9CLE 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q31:11Travis Etienne Jr. 4 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)CLE 16 – 10 JAX · JAX 8% → 28% +20JAX 8% → 28%+20 pts
- Q47:32Cam Little 25 Yd Field GoalCLE 16 – 13 JAX · JAX 17% → 33% +17JAX 17% → 33%+17 pts
- Q41:44Trevor Lawrence sacked in end zone by Alex Wright for a SafetyCLE 18 – 13 JAX · CLE 86% → 96% +11CLE 86% → 96%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -3.5
- ML CLE +150 / JAX -175
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -1.5
- JAX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- JAX: Elo 56.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- JAX -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 19.0 – 22.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −1 | +4 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +42 Elo | JAX 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 22.213th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 21.817th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +0.414th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.81 | Yards per play | 5.1816th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4121st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.