Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing24/36, 325 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- Sean TuckerRushing14 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving11 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing22/40, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing13 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Foster MoreauReceiving2 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Sean Tucker 5 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)51–27
- Q45:33Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)44–27
- Q412:34Cade Otton 8 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–27
- Q34:25Chris Godwin 55 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)31–27
- Q22:47Alvin Kamara 4 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)24–27
- Q25:39Sean Tucker 36 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–20
- Q28:37Bub Means 10 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)17–20
- Q29:00Blake Grupe 29 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q213:04Rashid Shaheed 54 Yd Punt Return (Blake Grupe Kick)17–10
- Q213:43Blake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q14:01Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field Goal17–0
- Q18:42Antoine Winfield Jr. 58 Yd Fumble Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–0
- Q110:05Chris Godwin 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:37Bub Means 10 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)TB 17 – 20 NO · NO 29% → 50% +21NO 29% → 50%+21 pts
- Q25:39Sean Tucker 36 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 24 – 20 NO · TB 50% → 71% +22TB 50% → 71%+22 pts
- Q22:47Alvin Kamara 4 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)TB 24 – 27 NO · NO 29% → 51% +23NO 29% → 51%+23 pts
- Q34:25Chris Godwin 55 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 31 – 27 NO · TB 44% → 73% +29TB 44% → 73%+29 pts
- Q412:34Cade Otton 8 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 37 – 27 NO · TB 75% → 94% +18TB 75% → 94%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3.5
- ML TB -185 / NO +155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2.5
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TB: Elo 58.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -164
- NO +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 23.0 – 19.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −126 | TB: Baker Mayfield · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +60 Elo | TB 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 28.04th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 19.28th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.6 | Margin | +8.82nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.57 | Yards per play | 5.5016th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5822nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.