Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing16/26, 164 YDS
- Javonte WilliamsRushing14 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
- Troy FranklinReceiving5 REC, 50 YDS
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing25/35, 172 YDS
- Kendre MillerRushing6 CAR, 36 YDS
- Cedrick Wilson Jr.Receiving6 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:22Cedrick Wilson Jr. 12 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Blake Grupe Kick)33–10
- Q44:06Cody Barton 52 Yd Fumble Return (Wil Lutz Kick)33–3
- Q35:53Javonte Williams 5 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)26–3
- Q310:24Wil Lutz 38 Yd Field Goal19–3
- Q20:16Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q21:57Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q27:30Javonte Williams 8 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)13–0
- Q213:24Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q15:28Wil Lutz 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:28Wil Lutz 46 Yd Field GoalDEN 3 – 0 NO · DEN 57% → 65% +8DEN 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q213:24Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field GoalDEN 6 – 0 NO · DEN 65% → 73% +8DEN 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q27:30Javonte Williams 8 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 13 – 0 NO · DEN 73% → 88% +15DEN 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q21:57Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field GoalDEN 13 – 3 NO · NO 10% → 16% +5NO 10% → 16%+5 pts
- Q20:16Wil Lutz 52 Yd Field GoalDEN 16 – 3 NO · DEN 85% → 90% +5DEN 85% → 90%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -145 / NO +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 60.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -135
- NO +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.0 – 17.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −38 | −118 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +73 Elo | DEN 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.7 | Points scored | 27.85th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 24.523rd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+2.7 | Margin | +3.313th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.69 | Yards per play | 5.3318th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.44 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0731st of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.