Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing18/24, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing12 CAR, 75 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving7 REC, 71 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing19/24, 222 YDS, 3 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing19 CAR, 86 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:28Jalen Tolbert 4 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Cooper Rush Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)21–27
- Q411:08Tyler Allgeier 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–27
- Q30:00Brandon Aubrey 57 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q310:23Ray-Ray McCloud III 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)10–21
- Q24:01Rico Dowdle 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–14
- Q28:28Darnell Mooney 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)3–14
- Q15:23Drake London 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)3–7
- Q19:32Brandon Aubrey 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:23Drake London 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)DAL 3 – 7 ATL · ATL 51% → 70% +18ATL 51% → 70%+18 pts
- Q28:28Darnell Mooney 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)DAL 3 – 14 ATL · ATL 70% → 86% +16ATL 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q24:01Rico Dowdle 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 14 ATL · DAL 13% → 30% +17DAL 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q310:23Ray-Ray McCloud III 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)DAL 10 – 21 ATL · ATL 71% → 89% +18ATL 71% → 89%+18 pts
- Q411:08Tyler Allgeier 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DAL 13 – 27 ATL · ATL 90% → 98% +8ATL 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML DAL +145 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -152
- DAL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 24.0 – 27.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +41 | DAL: Dak Prescott · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +41 Elo | ATL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.4 | Points scored | 24.312th of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 24.419th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−6.9 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.18 | Yards per play | 6.017th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3917th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.