Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing22/27, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing11 CAR, 46 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing29/40, 281 YDS, 1 INT
- Devin SingletaryRushing14 CAR, 24 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving12 REC, 115 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:54Brandon Aubrey 40 Yd Field Goal20–15
- Q411:11Greg Joseph 42 Yd Field Goal17–15
- Q35:06Brandon Aubrey 60 Yd Field Goal17–12
- Q38:42Greg Joseph 22 Yd Field Goal14–12
- Q21:06Greg Joseph 38 Yd Field Goal14–9
- Q29:16CeeDee Lamb 55 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–6
- Q211:11Greg Joseph 41 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q12:06Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–3
- Q19:03Greg Joseph 52 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:06Rico Dowdle 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 3 NYG · DAL 59% → 77% +18DAL 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q29:16CeeDee Lamb 55 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 6 NYG · DAL 69% → 85% +16DAL 69% → 85%+16 pts
- Q35:06Brandon Aubrey 60 Yd Field GoalDAL 17 – 12 NYG · DAL 69% → 80% +10DAL 69% → 80%+10 pts
- Q411:11Greg Joseph 42 Yd Field GoalDAL 17 – 15 NYG · NYG 17% → 31% +13NYG 17% → 31%+13 pts
- Q46:54Brandon Aubrey 40 Yd Field GoalDAL 20 – 15 NYG · DAL 71% → 86% +16DAL 71% → 86%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML DAL -270 / NYG +220
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -226
- NYG +226 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 25.0 – 19.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −9 | DAL: Dak Prescott · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +67 Elo | DAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 69.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 15.029th of 32 |
| 30th of 3229.7 | Points allowed | 21.318th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−4.0 | Margin | −6.325th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 4.7025th of 32 |
| 28th of 326.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2115th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 NYG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.