Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing12/15, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing25 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- Nelson AgholorReceiving1 REC, 56 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing28/51, 379 YDS, 2 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing8 CAR, 32 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving6 REC, 95 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:53KaVontae Turpin 16 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)28–25
- Q47:07Jalen Tolbert 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–18
- Q48:53Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–12
- Q311:58Derrick Henry 26 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)28–6
- Q20:02Brandon Aubrey 51 Yd Field Goal21–6
- Q20:25Rashod Bateman 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)21–3
- Q12:41Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)14–3
- Q16:33Brandon Aubrey 65 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:36Lamar Jackson 9 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Lamar Jackson 9 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 DAL · BAL 53% → 71% +17BAL 53% → 71%+17 pts
- Q16:33Brandon Aubrey 65 Yd Field GoalBAL 7 – 3 DAL · DAL 29% → 36% +7DAL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q12:41Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 3 DAL · BAL 64% → 80% +16BAL 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q20:25Rashod Bateman 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 21 – 3 DAL · BAL 85% → 95% +10BAL 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q42:53KaVontae Turpin 16 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)BAL 28 – 25 DAL · DAL <1% → 19% +19DAL <1% → 19%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -1.5
- ML BAL -125 / DAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -1
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 24.5 – 23.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +24 Elo | BAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.4 | Points scored | 29.91st of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.5 | Points allowed | 18.55th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.9 | Margin | +11.42nd of 32 |
| 4th of 325.85 | Yards per play | 5.636th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.62 | Yards allowed per play | 5.028th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 326–1 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.