Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing29/42, 352 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing20 CAR, 87 YDS
- Jalen TolbertReceiving7 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing15/27, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing14 CAR, 42 YDS
- Najee HarrisReceiving2 REC, 35 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:20Jalen Tolbert 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–17
- Q44:56Pat Freiermuth 6 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)13–17
- Q413:51Rico Dowdle 22 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)13–10
- Q311:50Connor Heyward 16 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)6–10
- Q28:51Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q17:33Chris Boswell 41 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q112:35Brandon Aubrey 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:51Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field GoalDAL 6 – 3 PIT · DAL 45% → 54% +9DAL 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q311:50Connor Heyward 16 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)DAL 6 – 10 PIT · PIT 43% → 69% +25PIT 43% → 69%+25 pts
- Q413:51Rico Dowdle 22 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 13 – 10 PIT · DAL 27% → 62% +35DAL 27% → 62%+35 pts
- Q44:56Pat Freiermuth 6 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)DAL 13 – 17 PIT · PIT 27% → 82% +55PIT 27% → 82%+55 pts
- Q40:20Jalen Tolbert 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 20 – 17 PIT · DAL <1% → >99% +99DAL <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML DAL +120 / PIT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -4
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 63.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -131
- DAL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 21.0 – 23.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +39 | DAL: Dak Prescott · PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +97 Elo | PIT 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 18.825th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 13.32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.8 | Margin | +5.56th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 4.9523rd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 4.866th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.