Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing22/34, 312 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin FieldsRushing10 CAR, 55 YDS, 2 TD
- George PickensReceiving7 REC, 113 YDS
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing16/26, 168 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 113 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:40Pat Freiermuth 8 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)24–27
- Q46:03Matt Gay 35 Yd Field Goal17–27
- Q411:23Justin Fields 2 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)17–24
- Q414:43Drew Ogletree 15 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)10–24
- Q32:53Justin Fields 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)10–17
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q212:31Matt Gay 33 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q12:34Josh Downs 4 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)0–14
- Q112:01Jonathan Taylor 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:01Jonathan Taylor 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 0 – 7 IND · IND 42% → 60% +18IND 42% → 60%+18 pts
- Q12:34Josh Downs 4 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 0 – 14 IND · IND 62% → 79% +17IND 62% → 79%+17 pts
- Q32:53Justin Fields 5 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 10 – 17 IND · PIT 7% → 24% +18PIT 7% → 24%+18 pts
- Q414:43Drew Ogletree 15 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)PIT 10 – 24 IND · IND 78% → 95% +17IND 78% → 95%+17 pts
- Q43:40Pat Freiermuth 8 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 24 – 27 IND · PIT <1% → 24% +23PIT <1% → 24%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML PIT -145 / IND +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -5.5
- PIT 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 69.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -139
- IND +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.5 – 19.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | −17 | PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +142 Elo | PIT 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 19.317th of 32 |
| 1st of 328.7 | Points allowed | 20.313th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.3 | Margin | −1.016th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.59 | Yards per play | 6.313rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2615th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.