Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/25, 315 YDS, 3 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing12 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving3 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing17/33, 178 YDS, 2 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing5 CAR, 25 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q413:18Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)47–9
- Q414:12Jake Bates 33 Yd Field Goal40–9
- Q35:26Jake Bates 33 Yd Field Goal37–9
- Q38:48Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal34–9
- Q312:35Jameson Williams 37 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)34–6
- Q20:08Brandon Aubrey 47 Yd Field Goal27–6
- Q20:36David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)27–3
- Q23:57Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q211:39Sam LaPorta 52 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)17–3
- Q213:28Jake Bates 40 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q19:06David Montgomery 16 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)7–3
- Q111:21Brandon Aubrey 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Brandon Aubrey 34 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 38% → 46% +8DAL 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q19:06David Montgomery 16 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 3 DAL · DET 54% → 71% +17DET 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q213:28Jake Bates 40 Yd Field GoalDET 10 – 3 DAL · DET 71% → 78% +7DET 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q211:39Sam LaPorta 52 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 17 – 3 DAL · DET 79% → 91% +12DET 79% → 91%+12 pts
- Q20:36David Montgomery 1 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)DET 27 – 3 DAL · DET 96% → >99% +3DET 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -190 / DAL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- DET: Elo 53.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -165
- DAL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 28.0 – 24.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +23 Elo | DET 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3226.0 | Points scored | 23.415th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.5 | Points allowed | 24.223rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.5 | Margin | −0.819th of 32 |
| 7th of 326.06 | Yards per play | 5.4916th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3513th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.