Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing23/29, 276 YDS, 4 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing13 CAR, 63 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving4 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing37/50, 330 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing9 CAR, 44 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving9 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:52Cade Otton 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)31–26
- Q412:04Kirk Cousins Fumble Out of Bounds in End Zone for a Safety31–19
- Q30:14Bijan Robinson 6 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)31–17
- Q20:01Younghoe Koo 39 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q21:04Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field Goal21–17
- Q22:09Darnell Mooney 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)21–14
- Q27:19Kyle Pitts 49 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)14–14
- Q210:28Rachaad White 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–14
- Q14:22Cade Otton 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q112:52Kyle Pitts 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:52Kyle Pitts 36 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 0 TB · ATL 51% → 68% +17ATL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q14:22Cade Otton 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ATL 7 – 7 TB · TB 31% → 49% +19TB 31% → 49%+19 pts
- Q210:28Rachaad White 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ATL 7 – 14 TB · TB 49% → 70% +21TB 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q27:19Kyle Pitts 49 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 14 – 14 TB · ATL 30% → 51% +21ATL 30% → 51%+21 pts
- Q22:09Darnell Mooney 30 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 21 – 14 TB · ATL 51% → 73% +22ATL 51% → 73%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -0.5
- ML ATL -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -3.5
- ATL 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 37.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 24.0 – 23.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | — | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +87 Elo | TB 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 29.94th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 26.028th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +3.911th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.93 | Yards per play | 6.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8728th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.