Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing17/22, 281 YDS, 5 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing15 CAR, 169 YDS
- Rashod BatemanReceiving4 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing31/45, 370 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing10 CAR, 40 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving8 REC, 100 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:58Rachaad White 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)41–31
- Q43:46Bucky Irving 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–24
- Q46:32Derrick Henry 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)41–18
- Q411:24Rachaad White 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Sterling Shepard for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q32:53Mark Andrews 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)34–10
- Q37:25Rashod Bateman 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)27–10
- Q312:20Justin Tucker 52 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q20:04Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q24:23Justice Hill 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)14–10
- Q212:29Mark Andrews 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–10
- Q10:02Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:27Mike Evans 25 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:27Mike Evans 25 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)BAL 0 – 7 TB · TB 34% → 52% +18TB 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q10:02Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field GoalBAL 0 – 10 TB · TB 55% → 64% +8TB 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q212:29Mark Andrews 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 10 TB · BAL 35% → 55% +20BAL 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q24:23Justice Hill 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 10 TB · BAL 53% → 74% +21BAL 53% → 74%+21 pts
- Q20:04Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field GoalBAL 17 – 10 TB · BAL 74% → 82% +8BAL 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -4.5
- ML BAL -225 / TB +190
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -4
- BAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 63.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -199
- TB +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 27.5 – 23.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1669 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +99 Elo | BAL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 66.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.5 | Points scored | 29.73rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 23.520th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+4.7 | Margin | +6.28th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.93 | Yards per play | 6.105th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4019th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.