Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing26/42, 348 YDS, 4 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing15 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 111 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing30/39, 392 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 193 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:33Justin Tucker 24 Yd Field Goal41–38
- Q41:35Justin Tucker 56 Yd Field Goal38–38
- Q45:24Isaiah Likely 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)35–38
- Q48:54Ja'Marr Chase 70 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)28–38
- Q49:05Charlie Kolar 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)28–31
- Q414:19Chase Brown 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–31
- Q36:38Isaiah Likely 1 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)21–24
- Q38:51Tee Higgins 5 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–24
- Q20:09Ja'Marr Chase 41 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Chase Brown Run for Two-Point Conversion)14–17
- Q25:47Sam Hubbard Safety14–9
- Q28:09Rashod Bateman 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)14–7
- Q213:44Tee Higgins 11 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q18:54Derrick Henry 1 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:09Ja'Marr Chase 41 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Chase Brown Run for Two-Point Conversion)BAL 14 – 17 CIN · CIN 28% → 55% +27CIN 28% → 55%+27 pts
- Q49:05Charlie Kolar 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 28 – 31 CIN · BAL 6% → 34% +28BAL 6% → 34%+28 pts
- Q48:54Ja'Marr Chase 70 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)BAL 28 – 38 CIN · CIN 66% → 94% +28CIN 66% → 94%+28 pts
- Q41:35Justin Tucker 56 Yd Field GoalBAL 38 – 38 CIN · BAL 13% → 51% +38BAL 13% → 51%+38 pts
- OT3:33Justin Tucker 24 Yd Field GoalBAL 41 – 38 CIN · BAL 52% → 79% +28BAL 52% → 79%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML BAL -140 / CIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -5.5
- BAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 69.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- CIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 25.0 – 22.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +6 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +139 Elo | BAL 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 25.59th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 26.027th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+4.5 | Margin | −0.518th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.84 | Yards per play | 5.869th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2314th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–0 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.