Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/29, 180 YDS
- James Cook IIIRushing9 CAR, 39 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing13/18, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 199 YDS, 1 TD
- Justice HillReceiving6 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:23Patrick Ricard Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Justin Tucker Kick)10–35
- Q32:45Lamar Jackson 9 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–28
- Q311:26Ty Johnson 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–21
- Q27:34Justice Hill 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)3–21
- Q214:55Derrick Henry 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)3–14
- Q14:34Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:50Derrick Henry 87 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:50Derrick Henry 87 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BUF 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 57% → 74% +17BAL 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q14:34Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field GoalBUF 3 – 7 BAL · BUF 26% → 33% +7BUF 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q214:55Derrick Henry 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BUF 3 – 14 BAL · BAL 67% → 83% +16BAL 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q27:34Justice Hill 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BUF 3 – 21 BAL · BAL 85% → 94% +10BAL 85% → 94%+10 pts
- Q311:26Ty Johnson 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 10 – 21 BAL · BUF 3% → 12% +9BUF 3% → 12%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML BUF +130 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -0.5
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- BUF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 22.5 – 25.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1663 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | BUF: Josh Allen · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +17 Elo | BUF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3237.3 | Points scored | 23.712th of 32 |
| 7th of 3216.0 | Points allowed | 26.025th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+21.3 | Margin | −2.319th of 32 |
| 6th of 326.06 | Yards per play | 6.551st of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6924th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.