Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing21/38, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 68 YDS
- Christian KirkReceiving8 REC, 79 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/30, 263 YDS, 4 TD
- Josh AllenRushing6 CAR, 44 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:04Ray Davis 3 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–47
- Q47:45Tyler Bass 43 Yd Field Goal10–40
- Q35:03Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field Goal10–37
- Q311:15Brenton Strange 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–34
- Q20:19Ty Johnson 16 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)3–34
- Q22:04Khalil Shakir 27 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)3–27
- Q26:19Keon Coleman 24 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)3–20
- Q210:39Cam Little 41 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q13:25Dalton Kincaid 6 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–13
- Q19:34James Cook 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass PAT blocked)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34James Cook 6 Yd Run (Tyler Bass PAT blocked)JAX 0 – 6 BUF · BUF 66% → 79% +13BUF 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q13:25Dalton Kincaid 6 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)JAX 0 – 13 BUF · BUF 79% → 90% +11BUF 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q210:39Cam Little 41 Yd Field GoalJAX 3 – 13 BUF · JAX 9% → 13% +4JAX 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q26:19Keon Coleman 24 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)JAX 3 – 20 BUF · BUF 87% → 96% +8BUF 87% → 96%+8 pts
- Q22:04Khalil Shakir 27 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)JAX 3 – 27 BUF · BUF 96% → >99% +3BUF 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -4.5
- ML JAX +180 / BUF -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -9.5
- BUF 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 79.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BUF -202
- JAX +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.0 – 25.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +238 Elo | BUF 79.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 75.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 66.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 26.56th of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +8.24th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.715th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1411th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
JAX 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.