Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/35, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing6 CAR, 22 YDS
- Zach ErtzReceiving4 REC, 68 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing20/26, 323 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving9 REC, 132 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:48Austin Seibert 49 Yd Field Goal23–30
- Q46:18Justin Tucker 39 Yd Field Goal20–30
- Q412:12Terry McLaurin 6 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)20–27
- Q32:08Derrick Henry 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)13–27
- Q38:19Justin Tucker 32 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q312:45Austin Seibert 55 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q20:53Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–17
- Q24:16Terry McLaurin 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)10–10
- Q27:55Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)3–10
- Q13:45Justin Tucker 45 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:11Austin Seibert 42 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:55Derrick Henry 3 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)WSH 3 – 10 BAL · BAL 70% → 86% +16BAL 70% → 86%+16 pts
- Q24:16Terry McLaurin 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 10 – 10 BAL · WSH 14% → 31% +17WSH 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q20:53Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)WSH 10 – 17 BAL · BAL 68% → 86% +18BAL 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q32:08Derrick Henry 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)WSH 13 – 27 BAL · BAL 88% → 98% +10BAL 88% → 98%+10 pts
- Q412:12Terry McLaurin 6 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 20 – 27 BAL · WSH 1% → 10% +9WSH 1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML WSH +280 / BAL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -7.5
- BAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 75.0%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -296
- WSH +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 21.5 – 29.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | +6 | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +191 Elo | BAL 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 73.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 74.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3231.0 | Points scored | 29.42nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 25.226th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.0 | Margin | +4.211th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.25 | Yards per play | 6.821st of 32 |
| 26th of 325.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6425th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.