Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing15/28, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- Jerome FordRushing9 CAR, 47 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving4 REC, 60 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing14/25, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jayden DanielsRushing11 CAR, 82 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving4 REC, 112 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:02Jordan Akins 10 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)13–34
- Q32:35Austin Seibert 30 Yd Field Goal6–34
- Q37:23Jeremy McNichols 3 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)6–31
- Q312:12Dustin Hopkins 31 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q20:36Dyami Brown 41 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)3–24
- Q23:11Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)3–17
- Q28:41Austin Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q213:08Dustin Hopkins 51 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q12:40Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:40Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)CLE 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 58% → 76% +18WSH 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q213:08Dustin Hopkins 51 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 7 WSH · CLE 24% → 31% +7CLE 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q28:41Austin Seibert 27 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 10 WSH · WSH 69% → 77% +8WSH 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q23:11Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)CLE 3 – 17 WSH · WSH 78% → 91% +14WSH 78% → 91%+14 pts
- Q20:36Dyami Brown 41 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)CLE 3 – 24 WSH · WSH 92% → 98% +6WSH 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -3.5
- ML CLE +135 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -3
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -143
- CLE +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 20.0 – 23.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +7 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +70 Elo | WSH 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3216.5 | Points scored | 30.33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 25.525th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.3 | Margin | +4.88th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.86 | Yards per play | 6.144th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2131st of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.