Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/38, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Ezekiel ElliottRushing10 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving13 REC, 146 YDS, 2 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing18/26, 260 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaac GuerendoRushing14 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving6 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:32CeeDee Lamb 20 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–30
- Q44:25Anders Carlson 41 Yd Field Goal17–30
- Q47:58CeeDee Lamb 7 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–27
- Q30:36Brock Purdy 2 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)10–27
- Q37:14George Kittle 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Anders Carlson Kick)10–20
- Q312:57Isaac Guerendo 4 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)10–13
- Q21:30Anders Carlson 44 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q22:56Brandon Aubrey 29 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q210:58Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–3
- Q17:14Anders Carlson 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:58Ezekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 3 SF · DAL 29% → 50% +20DAL 29% → 50%+20 pts
- Q22:56Brandon Aubrey 29 Yd Field GoalDAL 10 – 3 SF · DAL 52% → 62% +10DAL 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q21:30Anders Carlson 44 Yd Field GoalDAL 10 – 6 SF · SF 37% → 47% +10SF 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q312:57Isaac Guerendo 4 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)DAL 10 – 13 SF · SF 46% → 70% +25SF 46% → 70%+25 pts
- Q37:14George Kittle 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Anders Carlson Kick)DAL 10 – 20 SF · SF 71% → 90% +19SF 71% → 90%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -4
- SF 64%
- Fair odds
- SF -184
- DAL +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 22.3 – 26.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | DAL: Dak Prescott · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +99 Elo | SF 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 64.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.0 | Points scored | 25.78th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.0 | Points allowed | 22.617th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.0 | Margin | +3.113th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 6.402nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3314th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.