Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing16/27, 154 YDS, 2 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing22 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- Noah GrayReceiving4 REC, 66 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing17/31, 212 YDS, 3 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing14 CAR, 58 YDS
- George KittleReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:08Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–18
- Q43:09Mecole Hardman 18 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)28–12
- Q414:13Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)21–12
- Q310:29Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson PAT failed)14–12
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q26:45Kareem Hunt 6 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)14–3
- Q211:24Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–3
- Q11:06Anders Carlson 55 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:06Anders Carlson 55 Yd Field GoalKC 0 – 3 SF · SF 46% → 55% +9SF 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q211:24Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 3 SF · KC 44% → 65% +21KC 44% → 65%+21 pts
- Q26:45Kareem Hunt 6 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 3 SF · KC 66% → 83% +18KC 66% → 83%+18 pts
- Q310:29Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Anders Carlson PAT failed)KC 14 – 12 SF · SF 20% → 40% +20SF 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q414:13Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 21 – 12 SF · KC 62% → 89% +27KC 62% → 89%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -2
- KC 58%
- Fair odds
- KC -118
- SF +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.6 – 21.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1690 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +4 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +54 Elo | KC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 27.07th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 21.715th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.6 | Margin | +5.311th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 6.532nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4219th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.