New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing18/31, 236 YDS, 1 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing29 CAR, 155 YDS
- Alvin KamaraReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing16/26, 171 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing15 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- Ja'Tavion SandersReceiving4 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:18Chuba Hubbard 16 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–23
- Q411:55Foster Moreau 17 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–17
- Q34:15Blake Grupe 51 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q39:55Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)13–17
- Q20:38Eddy Pineiro 48 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q24:13Taysom Hill 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)13–7
- Q29:59Xavier Legette 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)6–7
- Q13:08Blake Grupe 33 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q110:51Blake Grupe 29 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:59Xavier Legette 3 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)NO 6 – 7 CAR · CAR 17% → 34% +17CAR 17% → 34%+17 pts
- Q24:13Taysom Hill 7 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 13 – 7 CAR · NO 64% → 83% +19NO 64% → 83%+19 pts
- Q39:55Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)NO 13 – 17 CAR · CAR 25% → 50% +25CAR 25% → 50%+25 pts
- Q411:55Foster Moreau 17 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NO 22 – 17 CAR · NO 55% → 83% +28NO 55% → 83%+28 pts
- Q42:18Chuba Hubbard 16 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NO 22 – 23 CAR · CAR 4% → 58% +54CAR 4% → 58%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NO -7.5
- ML NO -300 / CAR +250
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7
- NO 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NO: Elo 73.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -264
- CAR +264 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 25.5 – 18.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1259 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | −5 | NO: Derek Carr · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +181 Elo | NO 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 73.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 72.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.1 | Points scored | 15.529th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 33.932nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.6 | Margin | −18.432nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.17 | Yards per play | 4.8626th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9527th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–0 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.