Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing24/37, 224 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing15 CAR, 56 YDS
- Jalen CokerReceiving4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing28/37, 284 YDS, 3 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing8 CAR, 47 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving8 REC, 100 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Jalen Coker 15 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–28
- Q36:49Jaleel McLaughlin 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–28
- Q21:12Bo Nix 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)7–21
- Q26:51Adam Trautman 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–14
- Q212:29Nate Adkins 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–7
- Q17:12Xavier Legette 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:12Xavier Legette 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 0 DEN · CAR 19% → 35% +15CAR 19% → 35%+15 pts
- Q212:29Nate Adkins 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)CAR 7 – 7 DEN · DEN 60% → 78% +18DEN 60% → 78%+18 pts
- Q26:51Adam Trautman 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)CAR 7 – 14 DEN · DEN 77% → 90% +14DEN 77% → 90%+14 pts
- Q21:12Bo Nix 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)CAR 7 – 21 DEN · DEN 90% → 97% +7DEN 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q36:49Jaleel McLaughlin 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)CAR 7 – 28 DEN · DEN 98% → >99% +2DEN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML CAR +425 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -12
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.9%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -462
- CAR +462 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 14.0 – 26.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1268 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | −37 | CAR: Bryce Young · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +300 Elo | DEN 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 82.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 20.722nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3234.7 | Points allowed | 15.13rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−19.0 | Margin | +5.610th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.88 | Yards per play | 4.9424th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.03 | Yards allowed per play | 4.391st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.