Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Andy DaltonPassing11/16, 93 YDS, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing17 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Tavion SandersReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing18/23, 205 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:55Austin Seibert 29 Yd Field Goal7–40
- Q411:38Chuba Hubbard 4 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–37
- Q31:33Austin Seibert 31 Yd Field Goal0–37
- Q38:53Ben Sinnott 3 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Austin Seibert Kick)0–34
- Q20:10Zach Ertz 12 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Austin Seibert Kick)0–27
- Q25:39Austin Seibert 49 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q211:35Brian Robinson Jr. 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)0–17
- Q13:18Austin Seibert 23 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q111:14Dante Fowler Jr. 67 Yd Interception Return (Austin Seibert Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Dante Fowler Jr. 67 Yd Interception Return (Austin Seibert Kick)CAR 0 – 7 WSH · WSH 81% → 91% +10WSH 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q13:18Austin Seibert 23 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 10 WSH · WSH 91% → 94% +3WSH 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q211:35Brian Robinson Jr. 8 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)CAR 0 – 17 WSH · WSH 94% → 98% +4WSH 94% → 98%+4 pts
- Q25:39Austin Seibert 49 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 20 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +1WSH 98% → >99%+1 pts
- Q20:10Zach Ertz 12 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Austin Seibert Kick)CAR 0 – 27 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +1WSH >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -10.5
- ML CAR +450 / WSH -600
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -9.5
- WSH 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 79.2%, market 82.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -464
- CAR +464 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 20.0 – 30.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1285 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | +21 | CAR: Andy Dalton, usually Bryce Young · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +232 Elo | WSH 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 77.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 82.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 29.72nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3233.8 | Points allowed | 24.223rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−16.7 | Margin | +5.510th of 32 |
| 21st of 324.96 | Yards per play | 6.134th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0030th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.