Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing18/27, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 85 YDS, 2 TD
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving4 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing26/46, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing15 CAR, 39 YDS
- Cedric TillmanReceiving6 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:44Cedric Tillman 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)27–10
- Q44:16J.K. Dobbins 7 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–3
- Q23:30J.K. Dobbins 16 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)20–3
- Q28:01Quentin Johnston 66 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)13–3
- Q29:30Dustin Hopkins 38 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:49Joshua Palmer 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:49Joshua Palmer 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 0 CLE · LAC 53% → 71% +18LAC 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q29:30Dustin Hopkins 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 7 – 3 CLE · CLE 27% → 35% +8CLE 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q28:01Quentin Johnston 66 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker PAT failed)LAC 13 – 3 CLE · LAC 65% → 81% +15LAC 65% → 81%+15 pts
- Q23:30J.K. Dobbins 16 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 20 – 3 CLE · LAC 82% → 93% +11LAC 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q44:16J.K. Dobbins 7 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 27 – 3 CLE · LAC >99% → >99% +0LAC >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 59.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -116
- CLE +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 21.5 – 20.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | −10 | LAC: Justin Herbert · CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +64 Elo | LAC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 53.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.9 | Points scored | 17.327th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213.0 | Points allowed | 23.318th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.9 | Margin | −6.024th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.19 | Yards per play | 4.2732nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4318th of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.