Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing16/23, 168 YDS
- Pierre Strong Jr.Rushing8 CAR, 43 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving4 REC, 42 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing16/25, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing18 CAR, 47 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:54Dustin Hopkins 31 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q47:54DeVonta Smith 45 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)13–20
- Q49:49Dustin Hopkins 49 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q32:50Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q20:14Rodney McLeod Jr. 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Dustin Hopkins Kick)10–10
- Q21:58Dustin Hopkins 43 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q27:17A.J. Brown 22 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–10
- Q213:02Jake Elliott 49 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:17A.J. Brown 22 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)CLE 0 – 10 PHI · PHI 80% → 92% +12PHI 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q20:14Rodney McLeod Jr. 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 10 – 10 PHI · CLE 12% → 30% +17CLE 12% → 30%+17 pts
- Q32:50Jake Elliott 44 Yd Field GoalCLE 10 – 13 PHI · PHI 66% → 77% +12PHI 66% → 77%+12 pts
- Q49:49Dustin Hopkins 49 Yd Field GoalCLE 13 – 13 PHI · CLE 22% → 38% +16CLE 22% → 38%+16 pts
- Q47:54DeVonta Smith 45 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)CLE 13 – 20 PHI · PHI 61% → 93% +32PHI 61% → 93%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -8.5
- ML CLE +340 / PHI -425
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.3%, market 78.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -341
- CLE +341 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.0 – 25.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | — | CLE: Deshaun Watson · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +118 Elo | PHI 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 77.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.8 | Points scored | 21.518th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.2 | Points allowed | 24.021st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.4 | Margin | −2.523rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.81 | Yards per play | 5.5214th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9730th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.