Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing23/38, 289 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 115 YDS
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing27/41, 334 YDS, 3 TD
- Nick ChubbRushing16 CAR, 52 YDS
- Cedric TillmanReceiving7 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:59Cedric Tillman 38 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–29
- Q42:36Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)24–23
- Q44:55Dustin Hopkins 48 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q32:01Cedric Tillman 22 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)17–20
- Q34:42Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)17–13
- Q310:46David Njoku 23 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)10–13
- Q20:27Nelson Agholor 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–6
- Q23:41Dustin Hopkins 33 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q211:51Justin Tucker 49 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q10:37Dustin Hopkins 28 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:46David Njoku 23 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)BAL 10 – 13 CLE · CLE 21% → 44% +24CLE 21% → 44%+24 pts
- Q34:42Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 17 – 13 CLE · BAL 52% → 79% +27BAL 52% → 79%+27 pts
- Q32:01Cedric Tillman 22 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)BAL 17 – 20 CLE · CLE 21% → 50% +30CLE 21% → 50%+30 pts
- Q42:36Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 24 – 23 CLE · BAL 5% → 67% +62BAL 5% → 67%+62 pts
- Q40:59Cedric Tillman 38 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 24 – 29 CLE · CLE 28% → >99% +71CLE 28% → >99%+71 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML BAL -320 / CLE +260
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -12.5
- BAL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 86.2%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -292
- CLE +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.0 – 18.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1690 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −33 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +318 Elo | BAL 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 84.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 74.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3231.1 | Points scored | 15.629th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 23.118th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.4 | Margin | −7.628th of 32 |
| 1st of 327.23 | Yards per play | 4.0032nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3115th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.