Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing15/25, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- Chase BrownRushing15 CAR, 44 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving4 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing15/17, 128 YDS
- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonRushing3 CAR, 44 YDS
- Cedric TillmanReceiving8 REC, 81 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:27David Njoku 8 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to Cedric Tillman for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q31:30Tee Higgins 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)21–6
- Q37:56Ja'Marr Chase 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–6
- Q20:56Nick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)7–6
- Q114:48Charlie Jones 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:48Charlie Jones 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 CLE · CIN 67% → 81% +14CIN 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q20:56Nick Chubb 1 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins PAT failed)CIN 7 – 6 CLE · CLE 18% → 34% +17CLE 18% → 34%+17 pts
- Q37:56Ja'Marr Chase 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 6 CLE · CIN 64% → 86% +22CIN 64% → 86%+22 pts
- Q31:30Tee Higgins 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 21 – 6 CLE · CIN 88% → 98% +10CIN 88% → 98%+10 pts
- Q41:27David Njoku 8 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to Cedric Tillman for Two-Point Conversion)CIN 21 – 14 CLE · CLE <1% → <1% +0CLE <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -5.5
- ML CIN -230 / CLE +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -3
- CIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.7%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -201
- CLE +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 24.0 – 18.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | −3 | CIN: Joe Burrow · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +76 Elo | CIN 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 66.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.2 | Points scored | 15.830th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 23.519th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −7.727th of 32 |
| 8th of 326.03 | Yards per play | 3.9332nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4719th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.