Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing19/28, 208 YDS
- Joe BurrowRushing4 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Tee HigginsReceiving7 REC, 77 YDS
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing22/41, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- Daniel JonesRushing11 CAR, 56 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving6 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:52Chase Brown 30 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)17–7
- Q30:41Evan McPherson 37 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q35:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)7–7
- Q111:32Joe Burrow 47 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:32Joe Burrow 47 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 NYG · CIN 63% → 78% +15CIN 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q35:48Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Run (Greg Joseph Kick)CIN 7 – 7 NYG · NYG 17% → 42% +25NYG 17% → 42%+25 pts
- Q30:41Evan McPherson 37 Yd Field GoalCIN 10 – 7 NYG · CIN 57% → 71% +14CIN 57% → 71%+14 pts
- Q41:52Chase Brown 30 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 17 – 7 NYG · CIN 87% → >99% +13CIN 87% → >99%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -4.5
- ML CIN -200 / NYG +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -0.5
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 48.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -171
- NYG +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 25.0 – 20.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −2 | CIN: Joe Burrow · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +12 Elo | NYG 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3228.0 | Points scored | 17.828th of 32 |
| 30th of 3229.0 | Points allowed | 20.810th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −3.023rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326.06 | Yards per play | 4.9622nd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4116th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.