Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing18/23, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyjae SpearsRushing7 CAR, 47 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS, 2 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing14/18, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing10 CAR, 55 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving2 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:49Calvin Ridley 15 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)17–27
- Q47:39Hassan Haskins 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–27
- Q33:24Quentin Johnston 16 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–20
- Q37:51Nick Folk 27 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q21:55Justin Herbert 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–13
- Q212:07Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q14:25Calvin Ridley 41 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)7–3
- Q18:08Cameron Dicker 21 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:25Calvin Ridley 41 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 7 – 3 LAC · TEN 20% → 36% +16TEN 20% → 36%+16 pts
- Q212:07Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field GoalTEN 7 – 6 LAC · LAC 61% → 69% +8LAC 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q21:55Justin Herbert 4 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)TEN 7 – 13 LAC · LAC 66% → 85% +18LAC 66% → 85%+18 pts
- Q37:51Nick Folk 27 Yd Field GoalTEN 10 – 13 LAC · TEN 15% → 23% +8TEN 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q33:24Quentin Johnston 16 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)TEN 10 – 20 LAC · LAC 77% → 94% +17LAC 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML TEN +290 / LAC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -8
- LAC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 76.5%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -310
- TEN +310 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.0 – 24.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | +11 | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +205 Elo | LAC 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 75.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3217.5 | Points scored | 19.922nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 12.61st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.1 | Margin | +7.35th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 5.2917th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 5.067th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–6 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.