Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing25/40, 215 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing16 CAR, 61 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving4 REC, 50 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing21/33, 323 YDS, 2 TD
- Ray DavisRushing5 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon ColemanReceiving4 REC, 125 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:53Ray Davis 16 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–34
- Q49:26Tyler Bass 30 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q414:54Ty Johnson 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–24
- Q34:12Tyler Bass 28 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q310:23Amari Cooper 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–14
- Q210:04James Cook 11 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–7
- Q211:31Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 4 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)10–0
- Q12:57Nick Folk 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:31Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 4 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 10 – 0 BUF · TEN 32% → 52% +20TEN 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q210:04James Cook 11 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)TEN 10 – 7 BUF · BUF 47% → 68% +21BUF 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q310:23Amari Cooper 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)TEN 10 – 14 BUF · BUF 60% → 83% +22BUF 60% → 83%+22 pts
- Q34:12Tyler Bass 28 Yd Field GoalTEN 10 – 17 BUF · BUF 82% → 90% +7BUF 82% → 90%+7 pts
- Q414:54Ty Johnson 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)TEN 10 – 24 BUF · BUF 90% → 99% +8BUF 90% → 99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -9.5
- ML TEN +380 / BUF -500
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -10
- BUF 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 81.2%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -402
- TEN +402 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.0 – 25.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | — | TEN: Mason Rudolph, usually Ryan Tannehill · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +255 Elo | BUF 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 79.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 80.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3219.2 | Points scored | 27.56th of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 21.011th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.8 | Margin | +6.56th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.35 | Yards per play | 5.4816th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5021st of 32 |
| 15th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.