Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing22/38, 189 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler GoodsonRushing8 CAR, 51 YDS
- Josh DownsReceiving7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Will LevisPassing16/27, 95 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing17 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving4 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:27Michael Pittman Jr. 10 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)20–17
- Q414:57Matt Gay 22 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q36:19Tony Pollard 23 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)10–17
- Q20:19Matt Gay 26 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q211:09Nick Folk 44 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q16:51Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 9 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q111:17Josh Downs 22 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Josh Downs 22 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 0 TEN · IND 45% → 63% +18IND 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q16:51Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 9 Yd pass from Will Levis (Nick Folk Kick)IND 7 – 7 TEN · TEN 36% → 55% +19TEN 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q36:19Tony Pollard 23 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)IND 10 – 17 TEN · TEN 53% → 79% +26TEN 53% → 79%+26 pts
- Q414:57Matt Gay 22 Yd Field GoalIND 13 – 17 TEN · IND 17% → 28% +11IND 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q47:27Michael Pittman Jr. 10 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)IND 20 – 17 TEN · IND 22% → 69% +46IND 22% → 69%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -2.5
- ML IND +120 / TEN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- TEN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- TEN: Elo 44.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- TEN -124
- IND +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 19.5 – 22.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | +8 | IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +38 Elo | IND 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 19.820th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 22.515th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −2.824th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.19 | Yards per play | 4.3430th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.95 | Yards allowed per play | 4.393rd of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–0 TEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.