Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing33/44, 359 YDS, 3 TD
- Trey SermonRushing10 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving3 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing28/34, 371 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing13 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving5 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:17Cam Little 49 Yd Field Goal34–37
- Q42:40Alec Pierce 65 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)34–34
- Q44:27Trey Sermon 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)27–34
- Q45:09Tank Bigsby 65 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)20–34
- Q46:00Matt Gay 37 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q49:59Brenton Strange 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)17–27
- Q414:54Mo Alie-Cox 18 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)17–20
- Q37:13Tank Bigsby 3 Yd Fumble Recovery (Cam Little Kick)10–20
- Q20:04Cam Little 30 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q21:44Matt Gay 30 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q27:02Brian Thomas Jr. 85 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–10
- Q28:57Cam Little 23 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:49Michael Pittman Jr. 1 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:02Brian Thomas Jr. 85 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 7 – 10 JAX · JAX 48% → 69% +22JAX 48% → 69%+22 pts
- Q414:54Mo Alie-Cox 18 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)IND 17 – 20 JAX · IND 8% → 29% +22IND 8% → 29%+22 pts
- Q49:59Brenton Strange 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)IND 17 – 27 JAX · JAX 73% → 95% +23JAX 73% → 95%+23 pts
- Q42:40Alec Pierce 65 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)IND 34 – 34 JAX · IND 2% → 47% +46IND 2% → 47%+46 pts
- Q40:17Cam Little 49 Yd Field GoalIND 34 – 37 JAX · JAX 51% → >99% +49JAX 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -3.5
- ML IND +170 / JAX -200
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- JAX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- JAX: Elo 46.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- JAX -170
- IND +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.5 – 24.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | +3 | IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +28 Elo | IND 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 63.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.3 | Points scored | 15.029th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 27.330th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −12.330th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.10 | Yards per play | 4.9422nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8929th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–2 JAX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.