Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/33, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- Tank BigsbyRushing7 CAR, 90 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing27/40, 345 YDS, 2 TD
- Cam AkersRushing13 CAR, 53 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving12 REC, 151 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:18Dare Ogunbowale 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)20–24
- Q36:16Christian Kirk 8 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)20–17
- Q20:03Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q23:49Cam Little 52 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q27:19Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–14
- Q12:41Cam Little 41 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q17:23Stefon Diggs 6 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–7
- Q112:44Brian Thomas Jr. 2 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:44Brian Thomas Jr. 2 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 HOU · JAX 30% → 47% +17JAX 30% → 47%+17 pts
- Q17:23Stefon Diggs 6 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)JAX 7 – 7 HOU · HOU 51% → 69% +18HOU 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q27:19Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)JAX 10 – 14 HOU · HOU 57% → 77% +20HOU 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q36:16Christian Kirk 8 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 20 – 17 HOU · JAX 23% → 50% +27JAX 23% → 50%+27 pts
- Q40:18Dare Ogunbowale 1 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)JAX 20 – 24 HOU · HOU <1% → >99% +100HOU <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML JAX +225 / HOU -275
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -237
- JAX +237 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 20.5 – 26.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +11 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +142 Elo | HOU 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3213.3 | Points scored | 18.321st of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 24.723rd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−15.0 | Margin | −6.326th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 5.1219th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 4.635th of 32 |
| 24th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
JAX 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.