Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing9/17, 85 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing22 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving2 REC, 31 YDS
Dolphins- Tyler HuntleyPassing14/22, 96 YDS
- Tyler HuntleyRushing8 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving4 REC, 36 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:24Tony Pollard 4 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)31–12
- Q42:27Intentional Grounding on Tyler Huntley Enforced in End Zone for a Safety24–12
- Q43:36Tyler Huntley 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–12
- Q410:45Nick Folk 29 Yd Field Goal22–6
- Q30:36Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal19–6
- Q36:00Tyjae Spears 7 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)16–6
- Q39:02Jason Sanders 56 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q20:00Nick Folk 47 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q24:13Jason Sanders 44 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q28:20Nick Folk 52 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q214:16Nick Folk 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:20Nick Folk 52 Yd Field GoalTEN 6 – 0 MIA · TEN 52% → 62% +9TEN 52% → 62%+9 pts
- Q24:13Jason Sanders 44 Yd Field GoalTEN 6 – 3 MIA · MIA 37% → 47% +10MIA 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q20:00Nick Folk 47 Yd Field GoalTEN 9 – 3 MIA · TEN 54% → 65% +10TEN 54% → 65%+10 pts
- Q39:02Jason Sanders 56 Yd Field GoalTEN 9 – 6 MIA · MIA 32% → 44% +11MIA 32% → 44%+11 pts
- Q36:00Tyjae Spears 7 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 16 – 6 MIA · TEN 58% → 82% +25TEN 58% → 82%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML TEN +135 / MIA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -142
- TEN +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.5 – 20.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1350 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | −116 | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · MIA: Tyler Huntley, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +46 Elo | MIA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 11.032nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 24.022nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−10.0 | Margin | −13.031st of 32 |
| 28th of 324.49 | Yards per play | 4.8823rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7025th of 32 |
| 25th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.