Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing9/30, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing20 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon ColemanReceiving1 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing28/38, 331 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Cam AkersRushing9 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 59 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q43:18Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q34:20Keon Coleman 49 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–20
- Q38:48James Cook 5 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)10–20
- Q311:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 47 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q11:34Nico Collins 67 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–14
- Q12:55Cam Akers 15 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–7
- Q16:27Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:55Cam Akers 15 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 3 – 7 HOU · HOU 44% → 63% +19HOU 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q11:34Nico Collins 67 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 3 – 14 HOU · HOU 63% → 80% +17HOU 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q34:20Keon Coleman 49 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 17 – 20 HOU · BUF 13% → 36% +23BUF 13% → 36%+23 pts
- Q43:18Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field GoalBUF 20 – 20 HOU · BUF 21% → 49% +29BUF 21% → 49%+29 pts
- Q40:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 59 Yd Field GoalBUF 20 – 23 HOU · HOU 51% → 100% +49HOU 51% → 100%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML BUF +103 / HOU -123
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -1.5
- HOU 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 44.4%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.0 – 24.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +11 | BUF: Josh Allen · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +39 Elo | BUF 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 19.818th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 23.522nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.8 | Margin | −3.824th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 5.4417th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.01 | Yards allowed per play | 4.826th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.