Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing19/25, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- Ray DavisRushing20 CAR, 97 YDS
- Ray DavisReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing23/35, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing18 CAR, 113 YDS
- Allen LazardReceiving6 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:43Tyler Bass 22 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q36:13Greg Zuerlein 22 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q20:00Allen Lazard 52 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)20–17
- Q20:21Dawson Knox 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)20–10
- Q26:54Mack Hollins 8 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT failed)13–10
- Q12:01Garrett Wilson 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–10
- Q16:12Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)7–3
- Q111:06Greg Zuerlein 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:01Garrett Wilson 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)BUF 7 – 10 NYJ · NYJ 36% → 56% +20NYJ 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q26:54Mack Hollins 8 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT failed)BUF 13 – 10 NYJ · BUF 43% → 62% +19BUF 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q20:21Dawson Knox 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 20 – 10 NYJ · BUF 62% → 83% +20BUF 62% → 83%+20 pts
- Q20:00Allen Lazard 52 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)BUF 20 – 17 NYJ · NYJ 17% → 37% +20NYJ 17% → 37%+20 pts
- Q43:43Tyler Bass 22 Yd Field GoalBUF 23 – 20 NYJ · BUF 51% → 78% +27BUF 51% → 78%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -1.5
- ML BUF -120 / NYJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -3.5
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -113
- NYJ +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 22.0 – 20.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +2 | BUF: Josh Allen · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +87 Elo | BUF 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 52.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.4 | Points scored | 18.625th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 17.06th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+7.2 | Margin | +1.616th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 4.5329th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 4.261st of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 NYJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.