New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing29/54, 244 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Breece HallRushing9 CAR, 23 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving13 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing14/31, 179 YDS, 1 INT
- Ty ChandlerRushing14 CAR, 30 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:07Will Reichard 41 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q46:04Garrett Wilson 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)17–20
- Q412:07Will Reichard 53 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q30:50Greg Zuerlein 32 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q20:36Allen Lazard 14 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–17
- Q23:58C.J. Ham 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–17
- Q12:18Andrew Van Ginkel 63 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)0–10
- Q17:41Will Reichard 54 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:18Andrew Van Ginkel 63 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)NYJ 0 – 10 MIN · MIN 66% → 82% +16MIN 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q23:58C.J. Ham 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)NYJ 0 – 17 MIN · MIN 84% → 94% +10MIN 84% → 94%+10 pts
- Q20:36Allen Lazard 14 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 17 MIN · NYJ 5% → 15% +10NYJ 5% → 15%+10 pts
- Q46:04Garrett Wilson 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 17 – 20 MIN · NYJ 2% → 25% +23NYJ 2% → 25%+23 pts
- Q43:07Will Reichard 41 Yd Field GoalNYJ 17 – 23 MIN · MIN 81% → 96% +15MIN 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Vikings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 64%
- Fair odds
- MIN -144
- NYJ +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 18.7 – 21.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −25 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +101 Elo | MIN 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3219.0 | Points scored | 29.04th of 32 |
| 5th of 3215.5 | Points allowed | 14.84th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+3.5 | Margin | +14.31st of 32 |
| 25th of 324.81 | Yards per play | 5.958th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.38 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.