Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing22/38, 266 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Tony PollardRushing20 CAR, 94 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving10 REC, 143 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing12/15, 85 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing11 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- Sam LaPortaReceiving6 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q31:08Jake Bates 51 Yd Field Goal14–52
- Q36:12Kalif Raymond 7 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–49
- Q312:46Kalif Raymond 90 Yd Punt Return (Jake Bates Kick)14–42
- Q22:18Sam LaPorta 3 Yd pass from David Montgomery (Jake Bates Kick)14–35
- Q211:37Amon-Ra St. Brown 1 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–28
- Q212:51Brock Wright 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–21
- Q214:18Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 5 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)14–14
- Q13:57Jahmyr Gibbs 70 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)7–14
- Q14:07Mason Rudolph 11 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)7–7
- Q110:31David Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31David Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)TEN 0 – 7 DET · DET 81% → 91% +10DET 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q14:07Mason Rudolph 11 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 7 – 7 DET · TEN 9% → 20% +11TEN 9% → 20%+11 pts
- Q13:57Jahmyr Gibbs 70 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)TEN 7 – 14 DET · DET 80% → 91% +11DET 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q214:18Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 5 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 14 – 14 DET · TEN 9% → 21% +12TEN 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q212:51Brock Wright 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)TEN 14 – 21 DET · DET 78% → 90% +12DET 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DET -12.5
- ML TEN +425 / DET -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -13
- DET 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 87.0%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -468
- TEN +468 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 17.0 – 29.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1673 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +15 | — | TEN: Mason Rudolph, usually Ryan Tannehill · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +330 Elo | DET 87.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 85.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 82.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3217.7 | Points scored | 30.33rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 20.09th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−6.3 | Margin | +10.31st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.34 | Yards per play | 6.432nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5021st of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.