Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing22/25, 280 YDS, 2 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving8 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing22/27, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing14 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:15Jake Bates 44 Yd Field Goal31–29
- Q45:50Ivan Pace Jr. 36 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–29
- Q46:04Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal28–23
- Q414:24Will Reichard 42 Yd Field Goal28–20
- Q35:43Kalif Raymond 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)28–17
- Q310:42Justin Jefferson 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)21–17
- Q20:26Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)21–10
- Q28:39Amon-Ra St. Brown 35 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–10
- Q213:42Jahmyr Gibbs 45 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)7–10
- Q15:34Will Reichard 57 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q111:43Aaron Jones 34 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:39Amon-Ra St. Brown 35 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 10 MIN · DET 38% → 60% +22DET 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q310:42Justin Jefferson 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)DET 21 – 17 MIN · MIN 16% → 37% +21MIN 16% → 37%+21 pts
- Q35:43Kalif Raymond 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 28 – 17 MIN · DET 65% → 87% +22DET 65% → 87%+22 pts
- Q45:50Ivan Pace Jr. 36 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DET 28 – 29 MIN · MIN 16% → 59% +43MIN 16% → 59%+43 pts
- Q40:15Jake Bates 44 Yd Field GoalDET 31 – 29 MIN · DET 16% → 97% +81DET 16% → 97%+81 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML DET +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- DET +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 24.5 – 26.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −28 | DET: Jared Goff · MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +11 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.2 | Points scored | 27.85th of 32 |
| 8th of 3218.2 | Points allowed | 15.24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+12.0 | Margin | +12.61st of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.34 | Yards per play | 5.4817th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 4.815th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.