New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing29/41, 206 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Drake MayeRushing8 CAR, 95 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving7 REC, 56 YDS
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing20/33, 240 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing28 CAR, 128 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving5 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT2:32Nick Folk 25 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q40:00Rhamondre Stevenson 5 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)17–17
- Q44:27Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)10–17
- Q30:34Nick Folk 21 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q37:39Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)10–7
- Q27:13Joey Slye 52 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:18Nick Vannett 9 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Nick Vannett 9 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)NE 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 62% → 78% +16TEN 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q37:39Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)NE 10 – 7 TEN · NE 27% → 55% +27NE 27% → 55%+27 pts
- Q44:27Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)NE 10 – 17 TEN · TEN 53% → 96% +42TEN 53% → 96%+42 pts
- Q40:00Rhamondre Stevenson 5 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)NE 17 – 17 TEN · NE 0% → 45% +45NE 0% → 45%+45 pts
- OT2:32Nick Folk 25 Yd Field GoalNE 17 – 20 TEN · TEN 53% → 84% +31TEN 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -3.5
- ML NE +155 / TEN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -3
- TEN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TEN: Elo 60.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TEN -165
- NE +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 17.5 – 21.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +19 | NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones · TEN: Mason Rudolph, usually Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +76 Elo | TEN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 60.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 62.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.5 | Points scored | 17.128th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 28.029th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.1 | Margin | −10.931st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.40 | Yards per play | 4.5930th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.74 | Yards allowed per play | 4.783rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.