Houston Texans at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing20/31, 192 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing13 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing20/33, 243 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Drake MayeRushing5 CAR, 38 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:47Dameon Pierce 54 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)41–21
- Q49:24DeMario Douglas 35 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)34–21
- Q413:14Joe Mixon 20 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)34–14
- Q31:00Hunter Henry 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)27–14
- Q35:22Ka'imi Fairbairn 46 Yd Field Goal27–7
- Q36:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 39 Yd Field Goal24–7
- Q313:28Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)21–7
- Q20:11Kayshon Boutte 40 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)14–7
- Q13:13Joe Mixon 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–0
- Q19:13Tank Dell 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:13Tank Dell 2 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 NE · HOU 69% → 83% +14HOU 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q13:13Joe Mixon 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 14 – 0 NE · HOU 83% → 92% +10HOU 83% → 92%+10 pts
- Q20:11Kayshon Boutte 40 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)HOU 14 – 7 NE · NE 5% → 16% +11NE 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q313:28Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 21 – 7 NE · HOU 84% → 95% +11HOU 84% → 95%+11 pts
- Q31:00Hunter Henry 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)HOU 27 – 14 NE · NE <1% → 3% +3NE <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -250 / NE +210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 76.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -228
- NE +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 23.0 – 16.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | −22 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +204 Elo | HOU 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 75.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 12.431st of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 20.49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.4 | Margin | −8.027th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.62 | Yards per play | 4.2531st of 32 |
| 4th of 324.79 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6024th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.