New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing26/37, 276 YDS, 2 TD
- Drake MayeRushing3 CAR, 18 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving8 REC, 92 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing15/20, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- Tank BigsbyRushing26 CAR, 118 YDS, 2 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:41Tank Bigsby 4 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)16–32
- Q48:22K.J. Osborn 22 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–25
- Q39:42Cam Little 21 Yd Field Goal10–25
- Q21:34Parker Washington 96 Yd Punt Return (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Brian Thomas Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)10–22
- Q23:32Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)10–14
- Q29:21Brian Thomas Jr. 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–7
- Q213:31Joey Slye 41 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q18:32JaMycal Hasty 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:32JaMycal Hasty 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)NE 7 – 0 JAX · NE 37% → 56% +18NE 37% → 56%+18 pts
- Q213:31Joey Slye 41 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 0 JAX · NE 59% → 67% +8NE 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q29:21Brian Thomas Jr. 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NE 10 – 7 JAX · JAX 31% → 52% +21JAX 31% → 52%+21 pts
- Q23:32Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)NE 10 – 14 JAX · JAX 50% → 72% +22JAX 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q21:34Parker Washington 96 Yd Punt Return (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Brian Thomas Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)NE 10 – 22 JAX · JAX 72% → 90% +18JAX 72% → 90%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -3.5
- JAX 63%
- Fair odds
- JAX -173
- NE +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 19.0 – 22.9 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1330 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | +3 | NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +89 Elo | JAX 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 63.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3213.8 | Points scored | 18.823rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 29.731st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−10.0 | Margin | −10.831st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.32 | Yards per play | 5.5115th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.