Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/35, 234 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- D'Ernest JohnsonRushing6 CAR, 28 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving10 REC, 102 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing23/29, 226 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing17 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- Cole KmetReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:58Gabe Davis 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–35
- Q412:29D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)10–35
- Q414:56Keenan Allen 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)10–28
- Q36:02Gabe Davis 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)10–21
- Q311:22Keenan Allen 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)3–21
- Q20:13Cole Kmet 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)3–14
- Q211:07Cole Kmet 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)3–7
- Q14:37Cam Little 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:37Cam Little 30 Yd Field GoalJAX 3 – 0 CHI · JAX 44% → 52% +8JAX 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q211:07Cole Kmet 31 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)JAX 3 – 7 CHI · CHI 46% → 67% +21CHI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- Q20:13Cole Kmet 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)JAX 3 – 14 CHI · CHI 68% → 86% +18CHI 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q311:22Keenan Allen 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)JAX 3 – 21 CHI · CHI 88% → 97% +9CHI 88% → 97%+9 pts
- Q36:02Gabe Davis 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)JAX 10 – 21 CHI · JAX 2% → 10% +8JAX 2% → 10%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 59%
- Fair odds
- CHI -131
- JAX +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 20.9 – 22.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −42 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +62 Elo | CHI 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3219.4 | Points scored | 22.616th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.6 | Points allowed | 17.05th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.2 | Margin | +5.66th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.69 | Yards per play | 4.4029th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.057th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.