Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing18/27, 173 YDS, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing12 CAR, 35 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing28/33, 307 YDS, 4 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing9 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Courtland SuttonReceiving7 REC, 78 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:03Lil'Jordan Humphrey 41 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)6–38
- Q413:08Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field Goal6–31
- Q39:05Troy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)6–28
- Q20:25Marvin Mims Jr. 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)6–21
- Q22:48Younghoe Koo 51 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q26:16Javonte Williams 14 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q11:33Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:31Nate Adkins 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Nate Adkins 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)ATL 0 – 7 DEN · DEN 54% → 71% +17DEN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q11:33Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field GoalATL 3 – 7 DEN · ATL 27% → 35% +8ATL 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q26:16Javonte Williams 14 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)ATL 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 66% → 84% +18DEN 66% → 84%+18 pts
- Q22:48Younghoe Koo 51 Yd Field GoalATL 6 – 14 DEN · ATL 15% → 22% +7ATL 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q20:25Marvin Mims Jr. 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)ATL 6 – 21 DEN · DEN 78% → 92% +14DEN 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML ATL +110 / DEN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -120
- ATL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 21.5 – 23.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +43 | −22 | ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Desmond Ridder · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +51 Elo | DEN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 19.721st of 32 |
| 20th of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 17.74th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +2.012th of 32 |
| 6th of 326.01 | Yards per play | 4.9523rd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.49 | Yards allowed per play | 4.702nd of 32 |
| 7th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.