Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing22/30, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- Audric EstimeRushing14 CAR, 53 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing28/42, 266 YDS, 1 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing14 CAR, 35 YDS
- Kareem HuntReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:57Harrison Butker 20 Yd Field Goal14–16
- Q33:51Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q21:44Travis Kelce 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–10
- Q26:39Courtland Sutton 32 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)14–3
- Q29:02Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q214:20Devaughn Vele 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:20Devaughn Vele 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 KC · DEN 27% → 46% +19DEN 27% → 46%+19 pts
- Q26:39Courtland Sutton 32 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 3 KC · DEN 41% → 63% +22DEN 41% → 63%+22 pts
- Q21:44Travis Kelce 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 14 – 10 KC · KC 33% → 57% +24KC 33% → 57%+24 pts
- Q33:51Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field GoalDEN 14 – 13 KC · KC 48% → 61% +13KC 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q45:57Harrison Butker 20 Yd Field GoalDEN 14 – 16 KC · KC 51% → 73% +22KC 51% → 73%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- KC -7.5
- ML DEN +290 / KC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -10
- KC 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- KC: Elo 80.8%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -316
- DEN +316 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 17.0 – 24.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1730 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −29 | +4 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +250 Elo | KC 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 79.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 76.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 25.410th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 18.44th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.4 | Margin | +7.07th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.98 | Yards per play | 5.2419th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.127th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.