Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing23/31, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing7 CAR, 24 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving8 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing34/44, 291 YDS, 3 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing27 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving14 REC, 100 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT4:08Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Run24–30
- Q40:27Ryan Miller 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–24
- Q44:17DeAndre Hopkins 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–24
- Q414:14Samaje Perine 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–17
- Q35:50Chase McLaughlin 47 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q311:36Cade Otton 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–10
- Q24:05DeAndre Hopkins 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–10
- Q210:23Rachaad White 7 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–3
- Q12:16Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:36Cade Otton 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 10 KC · TB 21% → 44% +23TB 21% → 44%+23 pts
- Q414:14Samaje Perine 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)TB 17 – 17 KC · KC 30% → 65% +35KC 30% → 65%+35 pts
- Q44:17DeAndre Hopkins 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)TB 17 – 24 KC · KC 58% → 97% +38KC 58% → 97%+38 pts
- Q40:27Ryan Miller 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 24 – 24 KC · TB <1% → 47% +47TB <1% → 47%+47 pts
- OT4:08Kareem Hunt 2 Yd RunTB 24 – 30 KC · KC 58% → 95% +37KC 58% → 95%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- KC -8.5
- ML TB +340 / KC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -11
- KC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- KC: Elo 82.7%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -368
- TB +368 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 18.5 – 27.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1722 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +4 | TB: Baker Mayfield · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +272 Elo | KC 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 81.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 78.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 24.711th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 17.63rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.8 | Margin | +7.17th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.10 | Yards per play | 5.3516th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.077th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.